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Chinese leading steelmakers- Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and
Steel and another Chinese steel mill, are in talks with
the world's top three miners about 2010 iron ore
benchmark prices.
As per a report, representatives of these three steel
companies have gone to Singapore for interaction with
the mining companies BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale.
The report added that Chinese negotiators are pursuing
price talks with miners despite the miners' preference
for other Asian customers in South Korea and Japan to
act as price setters -- a position previously enjoyed by
Chinese mills.
"The talks have moved to Singapore and miners are taking
a `take it or leave it' attitude when it comes to
China," the report said, citing a senior steel industry
analyst with research house Umetal, Hu Kai. Quoting an
unnamed Chinese steel mill executive, the report said
CISA's drive for a "unified" iron ore price is "now even
more difficult to achieve".
The association has been pushing for a single iron ore
price in China, eliminating volatility in spot prices.
"This year's talks are likely to be like last year, with
Korea and Japan taking the lead (in setting the
benchmark price), and China then following," the
executive told China Times.
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Chinese steel major Baosteel Iron and Steel Co raised
March prices for major products by as much as 7.4
percent in response to higher demand and rising costs as
well as to recoup some losses when it unexpectedly
suspended price increases in February.
Hot rolled coil for March delivery increased by USD 44 a
ton, or 7.4 percent from February, while prices for
cold-rolled products also rose 300 yuan, or 5.4 percent,
Baosteel said. “The increases are within analyst
expectations, given the recent industry wide margin
squeeze caused by a fall in spot steel prices since
early January and rising coke and spot iron ore prices,”
said Gao Hua Securities, Goldman Sachs' China partner.
Quoting an analyst of research firm UC361.com, the
report said demand from automotive and home appliance
makers has been strong for Baosteel's cold-rolled
products, thanks to government stimulus measures.
Baosteel had unexpectedly kept February prices unchanged
for most products amid speculation the steel mill did
that to strengthen China's position in annual
negotiations over term iron ore prices with foreign
miners. With the March increases, the company is moving
to catch up with other major mills which had raised
February prices as the market is more certain now that
term ore prices will climb.
"Baosteel has to take into account cost issues as the
company highly relies on imported ore," Hu said. On
behalf of Chinese steel makers, Baosteel's state parent
is negotiating annual term ore prices with
Anglo-Australian miners Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton as
well as Brazil's Vale.
China's five largest mills have proposed to one of the
top three ore suppliers that they pay a provisional 40
percent more for contract ore, according to a Platts
newsletter. A hefty 40 percent jump would see Australian
ore prices return to close to the pre-financial crisis
record in 2008.
Customs data showed this week that China's iron ore
imports fell 25 percent to 46.6 million tons in January
from December's near record high of 62.1 million tons. |
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The average price of imported iron ore was USD 79.8 per
tonne in 2009, down by 42 percent YoY and the value of
imported iron ore was USD 50.51 billion in total last
year, revealed statistics released by the General
Administration of Customs
China imported 627.78 million tons of iron ore last
year, 41.6 percent more than the 443.45 million tons it
imported in 2008, due to increasing demand for the
mineral.
An unnamed source who participated in the talks said
China steel mills, led by Baosteel Group Corp have
started talks on 2010 contract iron ore prices with the
big three global miners, Rio Tinto Ltd, BHP Billiton Ltd
and Vale SA. They are expected to reach an agreement by
April 1st. |
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China, the world's largest steelmaker and consumer, is
set to double its steel production by 2025, said Marius
Kloppers, Managing Director, BHP Billiton.
The world largest mining company managing director also
said that he's optimistic about commodity prices,
especially for iron ore and coking coal.
Kloppers says his company started analysing Chinese
supply and demand some 18 months ago, and found it
looked positive for Australian exports. "So we did a
bottom-up analysis. How many buildings, what is the
steel intensity and so on," he says.
“We think that this trend is going to go on for the 20
years that we've forecast."
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Chinese steel product prices rose steadily for around
two months from October 2009 and the price of imported
iron ore increased accordingly. According to a report,
the average reference CIF price for iron ore jumped from
less than CNY 700 per ton to over CNY 1,000 per ton
during the period while the average reference CIF price
for Indian iron ore grading 63.5 percent hit a high of
USD 135 per ton.
As a result, a number of international research
institutes modified their original forecasts that the
2010 long-term contracted iron ore benchmark price,
between the three iron ore giants and Chinese steel
mills, would rise by more than 20 percent from the 2009
price agreed with Japanese steel mills.
Goldman Sachs estimated that the benchmark price would
grow by 35 percent. Merrill Lynch also raised its
forecast to 50 percent. However, the uptrend did not
last and steel product prices started to slide from late
January 2010 due to large stockpiles. As a result, the
falling steel product prices brought down the spot
Indian iron ore price which stands at less than USD 130
per ton at present, still higher than the price of
domestically produced iron ore.
Chinese steel mills, especially private enterprises, are
suffering from increasing production costs, which is
likely to lead to a drop in imported iron ore prices in
the near future. Both Merrill Lynch and United Bank of
Switzerland expect that China's crude steel output and
price will rise in the first half of 2010. If the long
term contracted iron ore price rises by between 35
percent and 50 percent and steel product prices continue
to slide, many domestic steel mills may face
difficulties.
In 2009, several emerging markets such as China
experienced relatively high economic growth and strong
steel product demand, while other parts of the world
struggled with the economic slump. Crude steel output
from the European Union decreased by 29.7%YoY while the
United States and Japan witnessed a 36.4 percent and a
25% drop respectively on an annual basis.
Although the global crude steel output recovered rapidly
in the Q4 of 2009, this was not driven by market
fundamentals, but by purchases to replace and supplement
stockpiles. The European Union expects that its crude
steel output will return to pre-crisis levels by the Q2
of this year. However, it is generally believed this
will not occur until the third or Q4.
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